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Hamas and Hezbollah are both without leaders. What now?

People are reflected in a window displaying a poster of then newly appointed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in the Palestinian camp of Bourj al-Barajneh on August 08, 2024 in Beirut Lebanon.
Chris McGrath
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People are reflected in a window displaying a poster of then newly appointed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in the Palestinian camp of Bourj al-Barajneh on August 08, 2024 in Beirut Lebanon.

Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas and the man believed to be behind the October 7th attacks against Israel, is dead.

Israeli officials announced on Thursday that he was killed by its military in Gaza. Sinwar was Israel's number one, most wanted man in Gaza.

NPR's Daniel Estrin reported live from Tel Aviv earlier today, explaining the situation more in depth:

"He was calling the shots in this war, he approved a hostage release deal back in November, and he was the man Israel was hoping would approve a cease-fire deal, Israel and many all around the world. He was the man."


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Sinwar's legacy

Since the beginning of the war, Sinwar had eluded capture, possibly in the labyrinth of tunnels Hamas built under Gaza. He was seen as a hardliner within Hamas and considered less likely to reach a cease-fire deal with Israel.

David Remnick profiled the Hamas leader in the The New Yorker earlier this year. He spoke to NPR about Sinwar's ideology — laid out in a semi-autobiographical novel Sinwar wrote while in an Israeli prison.

"It is certainly nothing having to do with the two-state solution. It is fueled by the absolute conviction that there can be no Israeli state, and there can be no compromise," Remnick said.

Israel killed Sinwar's predecessor as well as the head of Hamas's military wing – leaving Sinwar as the leading figure of the militant group.

A look to the future

In a statement released Thursday, President Biden called the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, "a good day for Israel, for the United States, and for the world,"
To explain the larger implications of Sinwar's death for Hamas, the region, and the war with Israel, All Things Considered host Juana Summers spoke with Daniel Byman, a professor at Georgetown University and a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a foreign policy think tank.

"It's a win [for Israel]" Byman said. "They've been promoting the idea that he's a dead man walking since the war's inception. And Israeli leaders can say to their own people that 'We now have killed the key architect of October 7th for Hamas.' He was a hardliner. And if he's replaced by someone who is more pragmatic or moderate, that could also lead Hamas to be more likely to compromise. But in the past, the killings of major leaders have not led to progress on the cease-fire. And both sides right now seem pretty dug in."

Sinwar's death comes weeks after the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was also killed by Israel. So what could come next for the militant groups now that several prominent leaders have been killed?

"It's unclear who is going to be the next leader of Hamas," Byman said.

"Israel has taken out much of the leadership, which makes it hard to determine what the natural succession is. So it's going to be a real challenge for Hamas to be able to have a leader who has credibility within the movement and from there have the credibility to be able to make major concessions and otherwise try to move beyond the current conflict.

But a cease-fire still seems like a far off possibility.

"Making a big leap such as a cease-fire that would risk [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's] political coalition. That leaves an uncertain question about domestic investigations into the October 7th attack within Israel. That would be a big jump. And so far at least, he's been very reluctant to make that."

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