If Harris wins, she'd be the second VP in modern history to clinch the presidency

By Jeongyoon Han

Published November 5, 2024 at 12:52 PM EST

Harris waves as she arrives to speak at a rally at the Wisconsin State Fair Park in Milwaukee on Friday.

If Vice President Harris wins, she'd be only the second vice president in modern history to successfully run immediately after their term as vice president. The first since 1933 to do so was George H.W. Bush, who was able to succeed Ronald Reagan for one term.

“Vice presidents are pretty successful at gaining their party’s nomination for president,” said John McGlennon, who teaches American politics at the College of William and Mary. “But they’re less successful at actually winning elections.”

About 1 in 3 vice presidents in modern history have successfully been elected president. Since 1933, 15 of 18 vice presidents have launched presidential campaigns. Only five succeeded: Harry Truman, Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, George H.W. Bush and Joe Biden.

Read more on what dynamics often shape a vice president's bid for the Oval Office.