Poll: Katko with a big lead over Deacon 5 weeks before Election Day
Rep. John Katko (R-Camillus) holds a 19-point lead over Democratic challenger Colleen Deacon, according to a poll released Monday night from Siena College/Time Warner Cable News.
The 24th Congressional District, which covers all of Cayuga, Onondaga and Wayne counties and the western part of Oswego county, has flipped between Republican and Democrat every two years since 2006. But Katko, who won election over then-incumbent Rep. Democrat Dan Maffei in 2014, holds a lead over Deacon throughout the district, including in the Democrat-heavy city of Syracuse, where Katko leads Deacon 50-38 percent.
“Five campaign weeks is a long time, but Katko is in a strong position for re-election in this district that has changed the party of its Representative in each of the last four elections, said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg in a press release. "And he’s in a strong position despite being both an incumbent – incumbents have lost the last three elections – and a Republican, when Democrats have won the congressional seat in the last two presidential elections. Katko is supported by more than three-quarters of Republicans, compared to 62 percent of Democrats for Deacon.”
The poll also shows Katko with a high favorability rating in the district, at 51-29 percent. Deacon's favorability rating is much lower, at 32-27 percent, mainly because she is not as well known in the district as Katko.
Katko also has support from 28 percent of Democrats in the poll, while Deacon has support from just 13 percent of Republicans.
“More voters know Katko than Deacon. More voters view Katko favorably. And more voters have seen Katko commercials and been contacted by his campaign,” Greenberg said. “As a Democrat, Deacon has a small edge in enrollment and the top of the ticket will certainly not be a liability for her campaign. Yet, she has an awful lot of ground to make up in the next five weeks, even though by a very small margin, voters would like to see the Democrats regain control of the House.”