On this week's episode of the Campbell Conversations, Grant Reeher speaks with Robert Mann, a professor who holds the Manship Chair in Journalism at the Manship School of Mass Communication at Louisiana State University. Prior to joining the Manship School in 2006, he served as communications director to Louisiana Governor Kathleen Blanco. He's also the author of, "Becoming Ronald Reagan: The Rise of a Conservative Icon".
Program Transcript:
Grant Reeher: Welcome to the Campbell Conversations. I'm Grant Reheer. Super Tuesday has come and gone. And some things are clear. And others maybe not so much. To help me sort this out. My guest today is Robert Mann. He's a professor at the Manship School of Communications at Louisiana State University, and prior to that, he was press secretary or communication director for a number of notable Louisiana elected officials, including Governor Kathleen Blanco, Senator John Breaux, and Senator Russell Long. He's also the author of “Becoming Ronald Reagan: The Rise of a Conservative Icon.” Professor Mann, welcome to the program.
RM: Thank you. Grant, it's wonderful to be with you this morning.
GR: Well, it's great to have you. So let me just start with a very basic question. Our listeners are certainly aware of the big news items that have come out of Super Tuesday. But what were your main takeaways from these presidential nominating contests?
RM: Well, I guess that the that those who said and I had a lot of friends you probably did too, or you knew people who really doubted that all evidence to the contrary, that it would be a rematch between Trump and Biden. I think, you know, I had friends like you probably do who just didn't think it would end up that way. That's something would intervene that, that Trump wouldn't actually go through with it or that Biden would, would drop out and that just didn't happen. And it, I, I kind of expected that that's what would would occur. But I think that what's interesting to me is going to be to see in the coming weeks when those people and I think there were a lot of them, on both sides, but particularly among independents who just didn't believe that it would be a Trump/Biden rematch, began to absorb the, the reality and how that shakes up the polls if it does.
GR: Yeah, yeah. And there are some interesting polls that suggest that substantial majorities of the country, not only don't want to see either of them be president, but don't even want to see either of them run again. But now they are running again. So, as you point out, the reality is that.
RM: Yeah, it's, you know, it's this weird thing because you see in the press a lot of the, the national press, The Post in the, in the New York, Washington Post, New York Times, you see these stories about how people are so dissatisfied with their choices. And yet, you know, Biden wins almost every primary with 85, or 90% of the vote. And Trump romps to victory with, with a, with a little bit smaller percentage because he had actually had some serious challengers this time around. But the vast majority of of activists in both parties seem to do want these two candidates to, to be their nominee.
GR: Well, I, I've read that there were also some notable, results that emerged down ballot. Obviously got less attention. Well, I just was curious if anything in that regard caught your eye.
RM: Well, I think what's happening in North Carolina with the with the Republican nominee, Mark Robinson, lieutenant governor, who, is now the Republican nominee for governor, who I think the Democrats wisely sat on a lot of his I think to say there were controversial statements is is a vast understatement. Appalling, disturbing statements about the Holocaust and particularly about, that he would prefer women weren't allowed to vote. This probably ensures that North Carolina will have another Democratic governor. But I think in a state that Biden only lost by about half a point in 2020, that this puts this potentially puts North Carolina, really in play. And, and, you know, maybe complicates, you know, Trump's, calculus a little bit because, I think they were counting on North Carolina being in their column. And, that could allow Biden to, you know, that could give Biden a little more breathing room in a place like Arizona or Nevada.
GR: Yeah. That's interesting. So, so now that we're at the stage we're at and you had the observation that you started with, but I wanted to see if there was anything else you'd want to add to that when I asked this question. And that's for our listeners and mostly we're in upstate New York, although we do get folks listening in from other places. But what do you think is the most important thing our listeners should have at the front of their minds at this point in the election cycle? Is there something you think they should be remembering or keeping their eye out for when they're watching these candidates or the parties?
RM: Well, I you know, I tell people that that you really need to you really need to tune out the polls. If, you know, for people on both sides, there's a lot of freaking out going on right now and particularly among, I guess, Biden supporters. But, but but maybe Trump supporters are a little overconfident. And I think maybe some Biden people are a little underconfident, and they're reading a lot into polls that will that will change a lot. And I think based on Super Tuesday, I think we're going to see some realignment. And, I just feel like that the polls at this, at this stage of the game are not really, especially the national polls, if you're looking at a you're looking at a national poll, I think you're just kind of wasting your time. You're just inviting, yourself to to contemplate scenarios that are unlikely to happen. And they probably aren't even, realistic. And so I would say people on both sides, if you're if you're a Trump supporter or you're a Biden supporter, focus on ways you can help your candidate, not ways you can freak out about your candidate's chances. And, you know, I think also that one thing that I've been thinking about the last few days is that we've we've got to have a more serious conversation in this country among political reporters and among political professionals about polling and, and how we cover it, how we use it, how the media uses it to create news, which I think is not the best use of their time. But I think we really need to reassess what we do with polling in this election and going forward.
GR: I think it's it's been a problem for a long time. But it's a good point. So given that your experience was mostly on the Democratic side of the aisle, nonetheless, I wanted to see if you're getting a feeling in Louisiana, of any kind of like, sense on the ground among Republicans. You know, you talked before about how people really were discounting the possibility that this would be a rematch of 2016. But it is, and so or it looks like it's almost certain to be. So are you getting any kind of feelings in Louisiana among Republicans that Republicans up here might not be getting the same sense of?
RM: Well, you know, so Republicans in Louisiana. So first of all, I think your listeners need to understand that, Louisiana had its statewide elections last year. We're one of three states that have governor and legislative races in off years. And so, a lot of the political activity that would be happening in other states and a lot of the influence that a presidential campaign would be having on a statewide election just doesn't happen in Louisiana. We elected a Republican governor last year, and a supermajority in both houses of Republicans. So Republicans are feeling really ascendant. The presidential campaign doesn't touch us, really, in ways that it might in a swing state. And so, you know, Republicans are really feeling the roads right now. I mean, the governor just convened two special sessions and passed some pretty bold legislation, and is going to continue to do that. They're on a romp, they're feeling their oats. And, there is just, you know, I think that the presidential election is something that people care about. But I think in Louisiana, it's something they feel like they can't do anything about, because their votes are in the bank for doing it. Our electoral votes are in the bank for Republicans in every election.
GR: You're listening to the Campbell Conversations on WRVO Public Media. I'm Grant Reeher, and I'm speaking with Bob Mann, a professor at Louisiana State University's Manship School of Communications. So, Bob, I moderated a panel up here in New York of, academics last week. It was before Super Tuesday, and my last question to them, it was a bottom-line type of question was at this point in the election cycle, I didn't want to ask them to make a prediction because political scientists and social scientists don't like doing that. But at this point in the election cycle, who should be more worried, Joe Biden or Donald Trump? And to a person, they all said Donald Trump. Do you concur with that? And why?
RM: I do, I do, and I think if you look at from a standpoint, the standpoint of resources, of money, from the standpoint of, you know, the issues, particularly how abortion and reproductive rights is cutting against Republicans and every special, almost every special election, since the Dobbs decision. And if you look at the, the sort of the legal peril of the two candidates, one and Biden, who is, you know, the Republicans keep stepping on rocks trying to impeach him and to some extent, the, you know, the prosecutions against Trump are a little bit in trouble and delayed and all that. But there's still, I think, a bigger problem for Trump, there's a story that I saw yesterday that the Democrats are about to dump, the Democrats, the Biden campaign and its super PACs that are helping the Biden campaign, are about to dump early $700 million in television buys across the 7 or 8 battleground states. That's an enormous amount of money, especially this early. This is not to say that it will work. This is not to say that money is the magic potion that just wins campaigns. It doesn't always translate into a winning campaign. But, the the question you ask is, who would I rather be? And I would rather be sitting in the Biden chair than the Trump chair at this point in the campaign.
GR: There's something I've been mulling for a while now, and I wanted to get your take on it. it's the first time in our modern history that we've had, two presidents, each with two four-year records to compare. And an election hasn't happened for a very long time. Now, granted, one is the sitting incumbent and one is the challenger, but they both have full presidential records. Do you think that will affect things? And if so, how would it affect the dynamic?
RM: Yeah, that's a good question. They are sort of running as these two incumbents in a way, and, they're so well known. I think the Trump people think there was a I saw that, that, a Washington Post columnist, tweeted the other day that the Trump people believe that there is no new information that voters need to have about Trump, that it's all baked in and that the negative spots that Biden is going to dump on Trump rain down on Trump will have no, effect. I don't believe that. I think that I think you and I both know that voters have very short memories when it comes to politics, and that there's a lot about Trump, that they don't remember a lot about Trump's agenda. If he's elected, that they don't know about. I think there's still a lot of room for the Biden campaign to educate about Trump. And so where I'm going with this is that, you know, Trump wants it to be a referendum on the incumbent, which is what every challenger wants it to be. Biden wants it to be a choice between these two, these two presidents and that. So if you want to know who's going to win the race, I think you just need to one way to look at it is in late October, are people going to be looking at this, this election as a choice or a referendum? And I think that'll it'll tell you how it's likely to go.
GR: And, are you following the vice presidential sweepstakes on the Republican side of this at all?
RM: Well, a little bit. As much as you as it can be followed, which I think is kind of I think it's kind of funny, funny in a macabre sense to be watching these. A lot of these Republican, former challengers and other people sort of swirling around Trump, you know, doing the bootlicking, trying to, you know, put themselves in contention for this, for this job. It's you know, I think Trump clearly wants someone who will be totally subservient to him and would I mean, he's looking for more subservience than he got from Mike Pence, if that can be believed. He's looking for someone who'll be much more loyal to him. Who will be willing to, if need be, to violate the Constitution in a way that Mike Pence wasn't willing to do. So, you know, I think it's going to be just a race to the bottom in that sense. It's not going to be a this is not going to be a pretty sight. And also, you know, you got to realize that and, you know, in both campaigns, the running mate is really supposed to be the hatchet person. And so you're also I think Trump is also looking for the sort of the dirtiest fighter that he can find. It's kind of hard to believe that Trump is looking for someone who's more of a gutter politician than he is, but I think that's what he wants.
GR: There's some, extra interest in it, I guess, up here in this area of the country, because Elise Stefanik seems to be on that list, and she's a member of Congress from a little bit further north of here. But nonetheless, she looks like she would fit the role of the attack person pretty well. I mean, that's what she did during the first impeachment, for sure. Any thoughts about her?
RM: Well, you know, yeah, I think she's, you know, she's clearly angling for the job. And, one observation I have about her is that, you know, it could be that Trump is looking for someone from a state that, that would, you know, that's in play. I mean, you know, New York is not going to vote for, it's not going to give its electoral votes. Elise Stefanik on the ballot is not going to make any difference in how New York votes. So that is you know, I think presidential candidates have gotten away from that because I think they realize that except maybe for Lyndon Johnson, you can't find an example of a running mate who brought his home state along, but that still may be a consideration for Trump in a very close race.
GR: You're listening to the Campbell Conversations on WRVO Public Media. I'm Grant Reeher, and I'm talking with Bob Mann. He's a professor at Louisiana State University's Manship School of Communication, and he's the author of “Becoming Ronald Reagan: The Rise of a Conservative Icon.” We've been discussing different things coming out of Super Tuesday's primary elections and looking beyond. So, I mentioned this panel that I had moderated up here in Syracuse. Another thing, that we got into a discussion with was, was whether Democrats, are essentially stuck at this point with Kamala Harris as the vice presidential nominee. It seems to me they are. But my panelists had some disagreement about that. It does seem like the White House is trying to feature her more in recent weeks and expand her portfolio in different ways. What's your sense of this issue?
RM: Well, I would not use the word stuck because I think she's she's more of a of an asset than, than a lot of people realize. You know, there are some, polls if we are just told, people just disregard polls, but there are some polls. It suggests that there maybe there's a little there's a little, you know, the support among African Americans and other minorities is a little bit soft this year. And I think to, you know, I think to, to, to throw, you know, a woman minority overboard a few months before the election would be a, a really bad move on Biden's part. And I think all the people around him understand that even if he wanted to cast her aside, which I don't think he wants to do, but even if he did, that would be I think it'd be a really bad political move for him. But I think she could help. And I think she, she's a she is she is a very, I think a very effective communicator. She's, I don't I just don't see the downsides that a lot of people see in her. I think the people who, who cast a lot of aspersions on her and who denigrate her are people who have trouble with, and I'm not saying everybody, I'm not trying to. I'm not. But I think a lot of people just don't like a I hate to use the word, but an uppity black woman. And I think there's a lot of that. And I see it around in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, among, not very tolerant white people who are just offended by the, the idea of a, of a black woman being in a position of power. And I think that sort of bleeds over. So, you know, I like her, I think she's a, she's an effective, a messenger, for, for Biden, for the campaign. I think she's been a good vice president. It's the fate of every vice president to be denigrated in some way and to be dismissed even by some of the president's own people.
GR: Yeah. No, I, I had used the word stuck because you're the, you're the, fullest throated endorsement of her potential help in the election that I've heard so far. Even among Democrats, they seem to view her as a liability in that may be because they are looking at those polls that you referenced. I wonder, do you think, let's say that President Biden should have some significant health issue that is, you know, patently obvious and can't be spun in any way health-wise, age-wise between now and the convention, do you what do you see happening in that instance?
RM: Well, first of all, let's say I think is I think I think if two people if either of the two candidates are likely to have, health issues, it's going to be the guy that eats Big Macs for lunch every day.
GR: Fair enough.
RM: So I just find it frustrating that there's an inordinate amount of focus on Biden's health when we've got this obese pre-dementia patient running for president on the other side who you know I just find it I just find the maddening that we're focusing on one one candidate's age more than the other. But if something happened to, I think if something happened to Biden, I mean, I think Kamala Harris would be the nominee. I mean, it's just there's just no way this late in the game that the Democratic Party is going to change two horses. Yeah, it's going to be Joe Biden and Kamala Harris through October and into November, no matter what anybody wants, because that's just it's just inconceivable that the Democrats would go in another direction this late in the game. If you wanted another candidate, if you wanted another vice president, if you wanted another presidential candidate on the Democratic side, last year was your time to get that this year, it ain't going to happen.
GR: If you're just joining us, you're listening to the Campbell Conversations on WRVO Public Media. And my guest is Louisiana State University professor Bob Mann. So, with about a third of the program we've got left, I wanted to, take some time and explore your thoughts about Ronald Reagan since you since you wrote, a very, very interesting book on him just a few years ago. And, obviously, he's been brought up a lot in the Republican debates, so far. And, and it's even the case that Democrats, mentioned him sometimes, often when they're criticizing the current state of the Republican Party. So let me just ask you, just a flat-out question to start with, is, is Ronald Reagan still relevant in the Republican Party right now?
RM: No, no, Ronald Reagan is, Ronald Reagan is in that sort of Mitt Romney, John McCain, category where, you know, he, a traditional conservative, who bases his, his appeal on his optimism and his patriotism, quote-unquote, patriotism, whatever. You how are you to define define that. That is just Ronald Reagan was not an angry person. Ronald Reagan was not a person who trafficked in personal invective. Ronald Reagan was not a was not a candidate who demonized immigrants. In fact, quite the opposite. Ronald Reagan celebrated America, you know, Trump denigrates this country, calls it a sick country, calls it a bad place to be. You know, he runs down this country in a way that Ronald Reagan would couldn't imagine. So, you know, if Ronald Reagan showed up on the scene today, he would meet the same fate that people like, you know, Mitt Romney, and then Nikki Haley and, and John McCain have met in that party. They're just no longer welcome. It is no longer a party that that they would be that they would even recognize. And I think they would be among the Never Trumpers who have left the party, at least for the time that Trump has control of it.
GR: Yeah. And you put your finger on something with that answer that I wanted to explore a little bit more deeply. Which is, is this a stylistic issue? Most of the things that you just listed as differences seem to me to be style and personality and for lack of a better word, character, with the exception of the immigrant position. Is there a policy difference here, or is this a type of politician in a way, of being a Republican?
RM: Well, I think to some extent I think to well, I think to some or maybe even a large extent, it is about it is about style and approach. But I think that's also very important. I don't, I don't think that it's, it's a, it's necessarily a superficial thing. And here I'll give you an example. when, when Trump won most, most almost all the Super Tuesday states and Haley Nikki Haley decides to suspend her campaign to essentially drop out. Trump attacks her, starts, you know, calling her names and sort of exalts in this victory in a, in a, I think, a very, ugly, counterproductive way, you know, beating his chest. Biden, by contrast, welcomes the Haley voters into his fold. That is what Ronald Reagan would have done. That's what Ronald Reagan did do. He saw politics as, he saw politics as addition, not subtraction. And so, yes, it is stylistic in a, in a large degree, but it is the essence of politics, I think, to know that if you're gonna win elections, you got to add people to your coalition. You can't throw people away. You've got to find room and make room for them and appeal to them. And, I have a million disagreements with Reagan when it comes to his policies. I didn't, don't admire what he did, but I do think that he understood politics, in a way that Trump doesn't. I mean, I don't mean Trump doesn't understand politics. What I mean is he sees politics in a completely different way. And I think that that way of seeing politics is not ultimately going to serve Trump well. It hasn't gotten, you know, a majority of the, you know, he didn't get the he didn't win the popular vote. And the Republicans have lost every major election since then because of those politics, I think.
GR: Yeah. So, you mentioned that Reagan wouldn't do too well today if he was trying to get the Republican nomination. He'd go the way of other folks. But I wonder how what you think, having written a book about him, what Reagan would be saying about Trump, would he break his 11th amendment if he was confronted with “The Donald?”
RM: Well, I don't think he would understand Trump. I think he would, it would just be inconceivable that a politician would or a Republican would, would do that. I mean, I just so a lot of my book was, was about, you know, Reagan's growing awareness of, you know, growing political awareness and his evolution from a, from a liberal Democrat to a conservative Republican. And one thing that I noticed in the book that, you know, Reagan, Reagan had sharp criticisms of the policies of the, you know, of John Kennedy and, and others, other Democrats, but he never made it personal. He, he made he really focused on, on policy or when he or when he did make it personal, it was it was usually about a, you know, sort of a, an anonymous person. He never picked people out and attacked them personally. And so I think that I think that he would just not understand and think that that was just really counterproductive politics to attack people, attack people personally. He didn't want to be seen as that kind of person. He thought it wasn't a he thought it wasn't an effective way to win elections. But I think he was, you know, I think he was largely, he was largely correct. And so I think he would not he would not admire and, and recognize the really, really ugly, mean-spirited Republican Party that Donald Trump has, has brought into being and helped come into being. You know, Ronald Reagan, Ronald Reagan has beared some of the blame for this in some ways. But I don't think he would recognize his party today. I just don't think he would recognize it at all and a lot. And the reason I say that is a lot of the people who I think are Reagan Republicans don't recognize their party and they've left it.
GR: Well, we've only got a few seconds left and I've got to end just an absolutely silly question for you, but I can't resist it. So I'm going to ask it. You are Bob Mann, and you actually hold the Manship chair at the Manship School of Communication. So Mann holds the Manship chair at the Manship School. Is that ever weird?
RM: It is weird. And, you know, what's weird about it is, that I don't, I just have an endowed chair. I'm not the chair of the department. I'm not the dean of the school. But because of that, so many people think that I run the place around here like, I get a lot of emails that I shouldn't be getting.
GR: Well, we'll have to leave it there. That was Bob Mann. And again, his recent book is titled “Becoming Ronald Reagan: The Rise of a Conservative Icon.” And if you're interested in learning more about Ronald Reagan and understanding how he developed the ideas that he did, it's a really great read to help you understand that better. Bob, thanks so much for taking the time to talk with me. I really appreciated this.
RM: Thanks, Grant. It was a pleasure.
GR: You've been listening to the Campbell Conversations on WRVO Public Media, conversations in the public interest.
