LEILA FADEL, HOST:
France is facing a new political crisis just a little over a year after President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the French Parliament and called new elections. Macron lost his majority and struggled to appoint a government. And now his prime minister, the fifth since he took office in 2017, appears ready to fall in a no-confidence vote today. NPR's Eleanor Beardsley joins us now from Paris with more. Good morning, Eleanor.
ELEANOR BEARDSLEY, BYLINE: Good morning, Leila.
FADEL: OK, so this prime minister hasn't even been in office for a year. Why is this happening now?
BEARDSLEY: Well, in one word, debt. France has massive debt. It's actually 114% of GDP. And the prime minister, a veteran centrist politician named Francois Bayrou, he wants to wake the country up over it. Here he is speaking to Parliament.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
FRANCOIS BAYROU: (Speaking French).
BEARDSLEY: So he said, this debt is a Damocles sword hanging over the country. He says all presidents from all parties have contributed to it over the last decades. He says it's urgent to slash $51 billion in cuts to the budget, but he has called for a vote of confidence from the Parliament to back him in this. But it's a huge gamble, Leila, because it seems his cry of alarm is not really being heard. Some of his proposed measures are very unpopular. Like, he asked people to give back and work through their federal holidays, and that caused an uproar. The French typically don't like cuts to their generous social welfare system. And the far-right and far-left parties who now have the biggest blocs in Parliament, they say they don't support it, and they won't vote confidence for his government.
FADEL: So what is likely to happen this afternoon?
BEARDSLEY: Well, he's likely to lose the vote, so he's likely to resign tonight. And Macron will have - French President Emmanuel Macron will have to name a new prime minister. And the far right and far left are calling on Macron to name someone from their camp, which Macron has always refused to do. But he might have to because he's probably not going to get one of someone from the center or his party through. And Macron could also call new legislative elections to recompose the Parliament in hopes of gaining seats, but that'd be really risky. He lost his majority a year ago. It could be whittled down further. I spoke with Douglas Webber, emeritus professor of political science at INSEAD business school. He said France is really heading into uncertainty and possible chaos. Here he is.
DOUGLAS WEBBER: Without a new budget and without some kind of measures to either raise taxes or to cut spending, the French government deficit will carry on growing. So the French government will come under a great deal of pressure on the bond markets and have to pay a higher interest rate than any kind of money that it borrows now.
BEARDSLEY: France's borrowing costs are currently higher than those of Greece and Italy.
FADEL: So do you see a disconnect between Macron dealing with a political crisis at home and how he's been handling the war in Ukraine?
BEARDSLEY: Yeah, I mean, Leila, it's like a completely split screen. Macron is very active on the world stage. He's leading efforts to end that war in Ukraine, like you said, leading this coalition of the willing to guarantee, you know, security for Ukraine after it ends. He's also heading this campaign at the United Nations this month for France and other major countries to recognize a Palestinian state. Yet here at home, he's been weakened. His popularity is extremely low. A recent poll showed he had 19% approval rating. And the far right says his legitimacy is so little, they're even calling for an early presidential election. Macron actually has two more years as president. He has said he would never resign. But he is looking like a very lame duck right now, Leila.
FADEL: That's NPR's Eleanor Beardsley. Thank you, Eleanor.
BEARDSLEY: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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