Program transcript:
Grant Reeher: Welcome to the Campbell Conversations, I'm Grant Reeher. Well, we had another election, and the results have set the political classes completely chattering. Here with me to parse out some of the real meanings from the results are New York State Assemblymember Pam Hunter, a Democrat, and Town of Salina Supervisor Nick Paro, a Republican. Democrats seem to have had a good night across the country, up and down the ballot. And I want to note that one of the Republican casualties of that night was Supervisor Paro, whom I had invited on the program prior to Election Day, but nonetheless graciously and gamely agreed to still come on and help us to understand what happened. So, Supervisor Paro, thanks so much for that, and Assemblymember Hunter, thanks as always. Welcome back on the program to both of you.
Pam Hunter: Thank you.
Nick Paro: Thank you so much.
GR: All right, well, Supervisor Paro, aside from your own race, obviously, what was the most important takeaway, do you think, from the elections on Tuesday?
NP: Yeah, you know, you saw a revolt, I'd call it a revolt, against the Republican Party. I think unfortunately, politics nowadays have become more about a label and less about the individuals. We've seen this shift occur probably over the last ten, fifteen years. It may have started even earlier than that, but it's definitely been energized. What your party affiliation I think is matters most to voters, and right now voters are very upset with the Republican Party, and they're upset with the person who leads the Republican Party, and that's Donald Trump. A lot of Republicans voted for him because they liked what he was saying on the campaign trail, and now we're seeing things that he's doing that are beyond what he had promised. They're more extreme than what we had signed up for, and we're seeing the results of that. I do like the caution, though. I don't think the results for the Republicans are as devastating as some people would take it. I think in Onondaga County, where I'm from and the results of my election, I do think we're seeing something that's much more of a shift than we are seeing elsewhere. But if you look, my example would be Nassau County. Nassau County voted Republican, right? You still were able to keep the countywide seats there, they were Republican. In Auburn, right around the corner from us, they just elected a Republican city councilor. And down in Binghamton, Binghamton kept their Republican mayor. So, you see these in other areas, but in Onondaga County, Central New York, you saw a large shift. Democrats won around the entire ballot. And then if you look at Virginia, New Jersey, those results were similar to 2017. So they were expected, they weren't as extreme as we imagined. But in Central New York, we're looking at a major shift.
GR: Well, what would you attribute that to? Because your original diagnosis was kind of a, you know, a rejection of or a reaction against Donald Trump. But what was different about the reaction here? Why?
NP: So, one of the cool things about our country, about our state is you have different people that live in different areas, they have different motivations. Central New York has this very specific characteristic. The people that live here have a different personality. They have different things that are important to them. And I think some of the things that are important to them are the complete opposite of what's important to Donald Trump and the Republican Party at the national level. You talk about that raid, the ICE raid that took place in Cato, that's not something that people signed up for. Just two days before the election, you talk about those two folks that were that are being held in an ICE facility in Batavia, they were employees at a local hospital. It's not something people in central New York signed up for. Those are things that mattered. And I also, I think the government shutdown, in Central New York we have people that that's affected deeply and those are things that they're rejecting.
GR: Okay, fair enough. Assemblymember Hunter, what do you think your most important takeaway from the elections?
PH: I do agree very much that, voters across the country send a clear message that they're just tired of broken Republican promises. And similar to what Supervisor Paro had said, it's not what people signed up for. I think that closing a border is different than scooping up people in your neighborhood who are hard working, who were, had legal papers to be working. That is something very different than the notion that criminals were going to be the ones scooped up. But also, you know, I think here locally too, especially as you look at the county legislature, there's been a lot going on in the county that people, I think, just are just tired. You know, when you're hearing SNAP benefits are going to be taken away, and yes, this is a federal issue, you need to make sure that those people who are providing social net services, which is the county, you want them to make sure that they're standing up and saying, hey, hey, hey, not on our watch, we're going to make sure we take care of our citizenry. That was not, you know, what was communicated. When you're hearing money for an aquarium, you're hearing, you know, money, huge tax breaks for Micron that could take away from school districts and the monies that they need, all of a sudden it's like, wait a minute, these are some of the things that we aren't getting to vote on that that's impacting our lives? But also tariffs, you know, people can't afford anything. Right now, people are going to be going through their health insurance premium increases, all of this is happening right now. A shutdown, tariffs, premium increases, SNAP benefits decrease. And we saw across the country, but more specifically in Onondaga County that this is not what voters want. This is not what people sign up for and they want something different. And it's up to the people who are elected, to make sure that they can keep promises and keep what they said, that they are going to do, that they do those things, they take care of affordability, that they're being transparent as they said that they wanted to be. And I think that will be something that we have to look for in the days coming up.
GR: Well, you mentioned the Onondaga County Legislature, and I did want to ask both of you about that, because I guess my big takeaway was, me and a lot of other people that do commentary on this kind of thing, we're looking in the wrong place in a lot of ways. I mean, we kept talking about Virginia, New Jersey, New York City, Prop 50, and of course those are all important things. And Supervisor Paro, you made some really good points about those other races, the New Jersey and the Virginia one, I think is important to remember, placing them in a historical context. But, I think it was down ballot where the real, to me, the real surprising stuff was. I mean, did anybody see the flipping of the legislature coming, at the county level? And beyond that, all of the races that were contested by Democrats were won by Democrats. I mean, the new ones, those six seats. So, I mean, Supervisor Paro, I mean, do you agree with Assemblymember Hunter's diagnosis? It had a lot to do with SNAP benefits and other things, or was it's more of a, just a deep reaction to the president again?
NP: Yeah. All due respect, Assemblywoman Hunter, I’m going to disagree with you. And I understand a lot of the talking points that you touched on, I think are important, especially from your side of the aisle, to try to take credit for some of the victory. But unfortunately, if that's the case, then you wouldn't have seen a sweep in the New York State Supreme Court seventh district over in Cayuga County, Monroe County. You wouldn't have seen three of the four Supreme Court justices here in the fifth district, all Democrats, they win. Those races have nothing to do with SNAP benefits, those races have nothing to do with an aquarium. Those are five other counties, in fact, that were involved in the fifth Supreme Court district. They won strictly because their label was Democrat and the other people's labels were Republican. Mind you, one Republican won, Judge McCluskey, he was an incumbent. He was obviously one of the lowest vote getters to win in the fifth Supreme Court district. But when you are able to see, when you see losses like this that are from different political offices and from different sections of our community, and like you said, Grant, all the contested races went Democrat, there's something much larger than, I think, specific issues. We're talking now, like I said, just a revolt. This was a sending a message that we don't like a monolith of a party, which is the Republican Party in this case. We have an emotional response to them and what's occurring. Now, the factors that you put in, those all may accumulate to it, but they don't transcend Supreme Court justice races. Those become more, well, you're just a Republican, we don't like what the Republican Party's doing, so we're voting against all Republicans. You know, and what happened in Onondaga County legislature, again, it was a revolt against the Republican Party. They were making a statement to Republicans. We don't like what you're doing. I think you're going to see a little bit of a correction to that. Some people did a vote, but also in Onondaga County, there's been a shift for a while. This has been building up. I think your side of the aisle has known that this is building and you guys have been taking advantage of that for the last few years. This was the watershed moment where you guys have finally broke through. Onondaga County has been shifted this way for some time, and we were expecting this to come. I think everybody expected it next year, but this was coming, we knew it was coming. It just happened a little bit earlier, and it's the way it is. I think the Republican Party has a lot of work to do to rebrand themselves, and I don't think they're going to be able to do it in the short term. I think this is going to be a long-term project by the Republican Party.
PH: I think that's true, that the shift has changed for sure. And while we are celebrating this overabundance of Dems winning on Tuesday night, this has been a long, concerted effort. This is not just something that just started this year. You know, we've been picking up races here and there. You know, obviously we have three of the four countywide races that are Dems right now. But looking at towns like a Salina, looking at Marcellus, looking at picking up seats in Onondaga, whether it's a specific to SNAP, ICE, aquarium, etc., I think that the, it is loud and clear that folks are just not buying in to the message that is the broken Republican Party that they are not wanting to support. And if they can pick an issue, whether it's SNAP or ICE or whatnot, I think clearly people were just going right down row A regardless of what race it was for and more Dems vote than Republicans and this is what happens. But if you look in towns like Clay, huge overwhelming upset, you're expecting Dems to win in the city, you're expecting Dems to win a majority dem districts. You're not expecting Dems to sweep in a Salina or in the Clay, where the enrollment doesn't necessarily reflect that. Even though there is a Democratic majority in Salina, what happened in Salina didn't reflect the demographics. So, the same thing in Cicero with the Supervisor, and we're going to wait to see what happens. And I think that is just either, a couple of things, Republicans stayed home, and also the sentiment of what is happening is just not where we need to be. But again, people vote and then it is the responsibility of those elected to deliver on what they say they're going to. And it can't be over-promising under-delivering because people are struggling right now. And that is real. And that affordability, you know, mantra where you just keep saying it's in your pocketbook, in your pocketbook that really resonates with people as they can't afford food. I was just, anecdotally, was in Utica yesterday and they do a Feed Our Vet every single Wednesday for veterans. I go and, you know, partake and see my fellow veterans. They had more people in line yesterday that I have ever seen. And I asked the gentleman in charge like, what's going on? It's never usually like this. And he said, it's all new people because their benefits were taken away. So this is what's going on, and I think the federal shutdown hasn't helped.
GR: Well, it sounds like in the main, the two of you are in agreement. You're listening to the Campbell Conversations on WRVO Public Media. I'm Grant Reeher, and I'm talking with State Assembly member Pam Hunter and Town of Salina Supervisor Nick Paro, and we've been discussing the recent election results and what they might suggest going forward. So, Assemblymember Hunter, you served was Zohran Mamdani in the Assembly, he's a party colleague of yours. What was he like to work with? Is he a workhorse, or is he a show horse?
PH: I did, and I do. He's obviously still in the assembly until the end of this year. I think it’s very interesting because he obviously is a self-proclaimed democratic socialist. He, and there are few others in our conference who, their mantra has been they sing from the same songbook. They say every single talking point exactly the same, and so they move as they bloc, they move as the democratic socialists in our party. And so, if you're talking about an activist, I think that in many ways, the DSA members, they have their talking points that they get from their leadership from the DSA, and they don't vary, you know, deviate from that at all. And so, in some ways, I don't know if I was able to see the individual Zohran that is apart from the DSA because they were all always together in their thought process and their communication. And that's how it works, right? It's not really very dissimilar than Tea Party. You're all saying the same thing, you keep saying the same things over and over.
GR: Is what you're saying then that in the Assembly, Mamdani was sort of an ideologue.
PH: Very much an ideologue. I think, you know, very much the DSA platform. They were very committed to that and that is not something that they detracted from. That's not something they shied away from, they weren't embarrassed to say that. I mean, literally, that was their identification. There is something different between being an advocate legislator and there is something different than somebody who is an executive, you have to deliver now. It is not pointing the finger at someone else that they're to blame. You are responsible for successes and failures, and I think this is going to be the tipping point to see how that works, because, you know, some of the ideology that the DSA espouses is not necessarily moderately accepted. And I think this is going to be a huge, I'm not taking away that the grassroots, the amount of people who helped and volunteered, and they pivoted from public safety that was the very first, you know, thing that they were going to work on as his platform, polling said affordability, and they ran with that. And it worked because people, their pocketbook, it matters. How do you deliver that? Zohran the mayor is going to have to figure that out.
GR: Supervisor Paro, sticking with this for a moment, Assemblymember Hunter made it very clear just how far to the left this guy is and has been. But one of the things that struck me was he seemed to even go beyond that in his victory speech relative to his campaign speeches, and just a couple things. I mean, he starts right out of the gate quoting Eugene Debs, you know, this pretty hard driving socialist from about 100 years ago and then tells Donald Trump, ‘turn the volume up’, which I was literally scratching my head when he said that. So, what's your sense from your perspective of this guy?
NP: Yeah. I mean, look, I'm a little, shocked is probably not the word. But he's taking 50.4% of the vote and calling it a mandate. I've never seen somebody who got such a thin margin for over 50% of the vote and run so far towards his corner of the political field, it's a little astonishing. I think he should have a little bit of a reality check that, you know, we're looking at, what is it, 49.6 (percent) of the people in New York City did not vote for him. They were very skeptical of what he's offering in his positions, and he needs to figure out how to govern, to represent 100% of New York City. But this is what we all knew was going to happen. The guy is a democratic socialist. I think that the democratic socialist brand is truly a red herring. I don't I don't really find that to be, that's a modern ideology, but it's really a socialist ideology from the early 1900’s. You even said it, Eugene Debs, he quoted Eugene Debs. Eugene Debs ran as a socialist, there was no democratic in front of it. I think this is a wing of the party that Assemblywoman Hunter and them are going to have to deal with. This is going to be a struggle. We have it on our side. Both parties have these wings of the, that we have to work with or work through somehow. This is something the Democrats are going to have to deal with. He didn't vote for himself on the Democrat line, he voted for himself on the working families line, he in fact voted straight working families line. That's just another example of the fact that he doesn't truly identify as a Democrat. He identifies himself as a socialist and he thinks the Working Families Party is a socialist party, even though they have a name that seems to be a lot more moderate than it is. So, I'm not surprised. I'm truly, I'm actually interested to see, I don't live in New York City, so it gives me a little bit more of a, I can relax my shoulders a little bit and observe to see what happens. I am nervous, though. The policies he's talking about we've seen elsewhere in the world. I mean, the city run grocery stores, we know what happened in Venezuela with that. We've seen this stuff before, it never seems to work. I'm shocked that people might, he's the same age as me, he's 34 years old. I'm just shocked at the lack of understanding of what some of his policies have done elsewhere in the world. Why would they be successful today? And what makes him so special that he can make some of these policies work? I'm unsure.
PH: I don’t think it's just that, though. I think it's the talking to people like where they are. If you see, like, the young people in New York City and you know, you're talking about what resonates with you, they're like, they literally were saying they didn't care about other people. They cared about their pocketbook, and he said that he was going to help us freeze the rent and have affordable. And that's in the pocketbook of people.
NP: That's a scary sentiment that these people, that these folks, you know, they're missing history. They're missing an educational component of, well, how do you help people's pocketbooks? We have a great example in America, what makes life easier, what makes life better, what makes life more affordable and it's capitalist ideology, it's capitalist policies. You know, who said it…
PH: We’re not going to be able to get to that if you can't pay for bread and food. I think the foundational things that folks need, you need to start from there before you can get to that.
GR: Yeah, I can see and I think you folks are making sort of overlapping points rather than directly oppositional lines. But I, Assemblymember Hunter, I get what you're saying about that appeal and why it resonated and who it resonated with. Let me though, stick with you, and it's something that I've heard the last couple days from the Democrats who are the most celebratory of the election, but I'm suspicious about it. And it's the idea that these returns showed that this broad coalition of different kinds of Democrats can stay together. So, you know, they'll say, look, look at Abigail Spanberger in Virginia. She's a much more centrist Democrat, she won. Mamdani won in New York, much more to the left. The problem that I see with only seeing this as a good thing, for me, is that this difference within the Democratic Party, and Supervisor Paro already spoke to it, you know, it's a fundamental feature going on with both parties, but it's also been around for a long time. And so this particular rift within the Democratic Party is at least 40 years old. And when we get to 2028, the party's going to have to choose one. They can have one as a vice president, I suppose, but they're going to have to choose one at the top of the ticket. So is there some kind of coming together that you see for Democrats, Assemblymember, other than just the deep dislike and reaction against Trump that we've already been talking about?
PH: I think a lot of it has to do a couple of different things. If you're talking about Pam, you know, the legislator, you know, elected person is different than Pam the constituent Democrat who, you know, sometimes is not happy with the Democratic Party, right? I'm not happy with, you know, some of the actions that they do and some of the inaction, quite frankly. But I think a lot of it has to do with, you are really only given the option of A or B, okay, maybe A with a working family line or a B with a conservative line, but you're really, you're not given, A are you voting moderate, are you voting left? Are you voting progressive? You're either voting A or B, and then it's for us to figure out after A has been elected, how do we do this together? And I think that you will see that in some of the towns that went, you know, blue you'll see that on the county ledge, how are they able to work together? Because every one of those county legislators are not left, they're not socialists. And that's okay, that's the way this melting pot works. But it has to work in order to be able to move a community forward and not be self-serving for a political platform.
GR: So, quick follow up then I want to get Supervisor Paro to weigh in on a different topic unless he wants to comment on this one. Let's just say Tuesday is kind of our classroom, okay? Democrats now are thinking about 2028. What is the lesson that they draw from that regarding who their nominee should be? Because I don't see a clear one.
PH: I think that's something that needs to be worked out. I don't have an answer for that. I don't, you know, have an answer for that today. I mean, Gavin Newsom is like beating his chest and like, you're the guy in 2028. I'm trying to get people food for Thanksgiving. I mean, literally, I think that is a political strategy that is kind of outside of my sphere as of today. But I think those conversations, it has to happen with the Democratic Committee, it has to happen with the Assembly Conference committee, the Senate, and it needs to happen at county level. I think really, you know, the county apparatus is just a legal entity to get Dems or Republicans on the ballot. Really, I think people think it's the Democratic Party, it isn't. It's a committee whose legal responsibility is to get these folks on the ballot. It's the committee members and the universe that kind of works together to make this happen. And there’s not, if we're looking for one savior, that person is not going to come.
GR: Okay, fair enough. Supervisor Paro, I know your party's going to have to sort this out too in 2028, and it'll have similar interesting conversations. But let me ask you this if I could. The California voters voted overwhelmingly 2 to 1 to gerrymander their districts in the name of small ‘d’ democracy. (laughter) Sort that one out in our heads. But my concern about this, and I wanted to know how you see this is, what's the next shoe to fall and where is this all going to end? Do you have any sense about this? I mean, Texas is doing its thing. Some other states have said they're going to do it, now California is definitely going to do it, they've got the backing of the voters to do it. Where does, where do we end up on all this?
NP: Well, look, I'm going to fire a shot here and say this, New York State did it first, right?
GR: Oh, yeah, true, true.
NP: This actually started, you know, back in ‘24. You guys gerrymandered three, you sued the special master and gerrymandered three congressional districts. And now you had three more, Democrat congressmen. Texas decided to respond, California responds. You know, I'm nervous about the filibuster in the Senate, to tell you the truth. That could be the next shoe that drops. The stakes are only going to get higher and I think we just got to recognize that's going to happen. We're on the climb right now. And this is something, as young as I am, this is something that I know and I learned this from some mentors of mine. Politics is cyclical, and this isn't going to be the way it's going to be forever. But right now, I think we're still on the climb and I only think this is going to get worse before it gets better. But we're going to hit a point where I think we will have a reset. We're going to have things go back to a little bit of a calmer, more sensible way to handle things. And, you know, truthfully, I could imagine that'll be in 2030. I truly think that we're in the midst of this climate now and there's not going to be a short-term solution, but I think, 2030 or so, we're going to see a shift, a different type of politics, something that we can recognize a little bit. That's some hopeful thinking…
GR: Yeah.
NP: ..but I think that's where we're going. Just expect it to get worse before it gets better, I think.
GR: All right, yeah. Well, let me let me ask you.
PH: (unintelligible)
GR: Oh, I'm sorry, let me follow up with Nick and then, Assemblymember, I'll give you the last word, but these are just super quick things. Filibuster, just tell me the percentage of your estimate that it's going to end anytime soon, just a one word hit.
NP: The government shut down?
GR: No, filibuster, the filibuster.
NP: 75% it'll end, so that way they can open the government.
GR: Oh my goodness, okay. And last question for you, Assemblymember Hunter. We're out of time, but give me your percentage estimate that, either chamber is going to flip in 2026 and at the at the national level.
PH: I think it's pretty high. That's usually what happens midterms after a presidential election. So, I'm not a gambler, but I have to say it's going to be the percentage necessary to get over so that 50% plus one will be enough to be able to take back the house. I don't know if both of them, but I definitely think one of the houses will definitely, the margins are too slim right now anyway, and if the trajectory keeps happening, I don't foresee that not happening.
GR: Well, we'll have to leave it there. That was Nick Paro and Pam Hunter. Again, Supervisor Paro, Assemblymember Hunter, thanks again for taking the time to talk to me. I really appreciate it.
PH: Thank you.
NP: Absolutely.
GR: You've been listening to the Campbell Conversations on WRVO Public Media, conversations in the public interest.
