Can the yield curve still predict recessions?

By Darian Woods,

Adrian Ma, Cooper Katz McKim, Kate Concannon

Published October 16, 2024 at 2:54 PM EDT

The 'Fearless Girl' statue stands in front of the New York Stock Exchange.

Two years ago, the yield curve inverted. That means short-term interest rates on Treasury bonds were unusually higher than long-term interest rates. When that's happened in the past, a recession has come. In fact, the inverted yield curve has predicted every recession since 1969 ... until now. Today, are we saying goodbye to the inverted yield curve's flawless record?

Related episodes:
The inverted yield curve is screaming RECESSION (Apple / Spotify)
Yield curve jitters
Two Yield Curve Indicators

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Darian Woods

Darian Woods is a reporter and producer for The Indicator from Planet Money. He blends economics, journalism, and an ear for audio to tell stories that explain the global economy. He's reported on the time the world got together and solved a climate crisis, vaccine intellectual property explained through cake baking, and how Kit Kat bars reveal hidden economic forces.

See stories by Darian Woods

Adrian Ma

Adrian Ma covers work, money and other "business-ish" for NPR's daily economics podcast The Indicator from Planet Money.

Cooper Katz McKim

Cooper Katz McKim is an Assistant Producer for NPR's daily economics podcast The Indicator from Planet Money. Before The Indicator, McKim reported at NPR Member stations in South Carolina and Wyoming. At Wyoming Public Radio, he filed stories with NPR's Environment And Energy Collaborative on bankruptcies, carbon capture and economic transition. He's won a national Edward R. Murrow Award for Best Use of Sound. More recently, he's served as a podcast producer at Sports Illustrated and the HISTORY Channel. He graduated from Tufts University and now resides in Denver, Colorado, where he spends his time mountain biking and playing jazz piano. [Copyright 2024 NPR]

Kate Concannon

Kate Concannon is the Supervising Senior Editor at The Indicator from Planet Money. She leads this small, collaborative team of hosts, reporters and producers in making sense of crucial, but often complex and confusing, economic news in just 10 minutes a day.