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Can the yield curve still predict recessions?

NPR | By Darian Woods,

Adrian Ma, Cooper Katz McKim, Kate Concannon

Published October 16, 2024 at 2:54 PM EDT

The 'Fearless Girl' statue stands in front of the New York Stock Exchange.

Two years ago, the yield curve inverted. That means short-term interest rates on Treasury bonds were unusually higher than long-term interest rates. When that's happened in the past, a recession has come. In fact, the inverted yield curve has predicted every recession since 1969 ... until now. Today, are we saying goodbye to the inverted yield curve's flawless record?

Related episodes:
The inverted yield curve is screaming RECESSION (Apple / Spotify)
Yield curve jitters
Two Yield Curve Indicators

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Darian Woods

Darian Woods is a co-host of The Indicator from Planet Money.

See stories by Darian Woods

Adrian Ma

Adrian Ma covers work, money and other "business-ish" for The Indicator from Planet Money, the daily economics podcast from NPR.

Cooper Katz McKim

Cooper Katz McKim is an Associate Producer for The Indicator from Planet Money.

Kate Concannon

Kate Concannon is the Supervising Senior Editor at The Indicator from Planet Money. She leads this small, collaborative team of hosts, reporters and producers in making sense of crucial, but often complex and confusing, economic news in just 10 minutes a day.

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