Latinos are the largest-growing group in the country. They have increased as a share of the electorate in each of the last seven presidential elections and have increased substantially as a share of the electorate in each of the seven swing states.
They could be particularly influential in Arizona and Nevada, where they made up about 1 in 5 voters in 2020. They are also notable portions of the voting populations in the other swing states. In North Carolina, for example, they are nearly 8% of the eligible-voter population, up four-fold since 2008. In Georgia, they are just over 7%, having doubled since 2008.
Latinos have voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in each of the last four presidential elections by at least a 2-to-1 margin. Republicans came closest in 2004 when President George W. Bush was running for reelection. Bush took a very different approach than Trump. He advocated for a comprehensive immigration overhaul. Trump has demonized illegal immigrants and helped thwart a bipartisan immigration bill.
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But Trump actually gained support among Latinos in 2020. He lost Latinos in all seven swing states in the last election, but by less than in 2016. Pre-election polls this time have shown Trump peeling off more Latinos — and he’s doing it partly with his messaging on the economy.
His gains may have been hampered, though, after a comedian at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage.” That incensed many of Puerto Rican descent, including celebrities like Bad Bunny and Jennifer Lopez. Puerto Ricans are about 2.5% of the population in Pennsylvania, or 500,000 people. It’s not a huge percentage, but in an election that could be decided at the margins, anything could matter.
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