The leader of New York’s Republican Party really doesn’t want a gubernatorial primary.
Ed Cox, a son-in-law of former President Richard Nixon who is in his second stint as the state GOP chair, said U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik did all the scut work needed to win over party leaders — including himself.
So Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman’s entry this month into the race for governor was an unwelcome turn.
“He is respected within the party, but it is recognized that he is just not the candidate this time around, and we cannot afford a primary,” Cox said. “He wanted to talk to people in the party. And that's his perfect right to do it. But there comes a time when the reality of the situation will become absolutely clear to him as he looks around, talks to people — I think at that point he will not be going forward.”
There’s a structural reason for Cox’s prognosis. To earn a spot on the June primary ballot, a candidate needs to win at least 25% of the weighted vote of the state committee at its February convention — or submit nominating petitions. Stefanik has rolled out endorsements from party leaders representing more than 75% of that weighted vote.
Blakeman says that doesn’t matter — he’s resonating with voters and has cross-over appeal beyond the GOP base. As proof, he pointed to his resounding re-election last month in Nassau County, where Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 70,000.
“I basically won by a large margin, not by abandoning Trump. And not by abandoning Republican principles and American values, which I talk about all the time, but I reached out to communities that typically don't vote Republican,” he said. “Elise Stefanik has no votes at the convention. Zero. Until there's a convention, there are no votes.”
A Siena University poll released Tuesday shows Stefanik beating Blakeman among Republican voters, 48%-17%. Thirty-four percent of GOP voters were undecided on the primary. The poll found Gov. Kathy Hochul had a double-digit lead over either challenger.
In an interview released on Sunday, Stefanik expressed optimism that she’d secure the necessary support. While she represents a North Country district that is redder than the state and much of her work in Washington has focused on the MAGA base, Stefanik pointed out that she defeated a Democrat when she was first elected to Congress in 2014.
Republicans say President Donald Trump could easily settle the spat, but he has so far declined to do so. He said last week that Blakeman and Stefanik are “two great people running.”
“I always hate it when two very good friends of mine are running, and I hope there’s not a lot of damage done,” Trump said. He said he expected things would be settled after the party convention.
Blakeman wouldn’t say whether he would circulate petitions if he wasn’t successful at the convention.
“I don't want to speculate on that because my focus now is winning the convention,” he said.
Ballot Box
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