By Karen Dewitt
Albany, NY – The New Year will be starting without an announced Democratic
candidate in the 2010 race for governor. Attorney General Andrew
Cuomo, the most popular politician in the state, is keeping mum on
his plans, while the current Governor, David Paterson, says he wants
to run- but has not made it official.
The state's Attorney General, Andrew Cuomo is the most popular
politician in the state, when most elected officials are suffering
from public discontent. Cuomo, in his three years as AG, has become
known for fighting corruption ranging from abuses in the nation's
student loan program, to cracking down on sexual predators on social
network sites, and going after illegal kickbacks to administrators of
the state's pension fund.
"Enough is enough", said Cuomo recently, announcing developments in
the pension fund probe. "It's about restoring trust in government.
It's about restoring the taxpayer's trust."
Cuomo runs consistently 40 points ahead of current Governor David
Paterson in polls of possible match ups for a Democratic primary for
the governor's race. But the son of former Governor Mario Cuomo,
while widely believed to want the job his father once held, has been
circumspect about his future plans, saying repeatedly through out the
year that he currently plans to seek reelection as Attorney General.
"What I'm working on today is just doing the best job I an as
Attorney General, " said Cuomo, in a typical answer that Cuomo gives
when pressed about his future plans.
Governor David Paterson, on the other hand, has said repeatedly he
does intend to run for election to the job he obtained when Eliot
Spitzer resigned- despite extremely low poll ratings and a perception
that he has not done enough to lead the state. Paterson has managed
to change that image somewhat in recent weeks, portraying himself as
the only politician with the courage to make the hard choices in face
of a multi billion dollar budget deficit. Paterson acted unilaterally
to cut spending to schools and local governments when the legislature
refused to act.
"We are actually saving the state of New York from absolute chaos,"
Paterson declared at the time.
But the constant bad budget news has worn Paterson down. He believes
his popularity has eroded because of the recession, and the decisions
he's had to make to cut spending on key programs as well as raise
taxes and numerous fees. The governor says other potential candidates
for governor who he's termed "phantom candidates" would not be so
popular, either, if they had to deal with the worst budget crisis in
decades.
"No one ever got knocked out when they were standing outside the
ring," said Paterson
In recent statewide election cycles, major party candidates have
announced their intentions to run, at least eleven months before
Election Day. But New York will enter into 2010 without a major
Democrat declaring. Republican candidate Rick Lazio made a formal
announcement in September, and has campaigned actively.
Steve Greenberg, with Siena College Research Institute, says this
year is different. Cuomo, or any announced candidate, especially one
perceived as a front runner, would have to answer questions about how
to solve the state's budget problems, and get drawn in to a quagmire
where there are no clear political winners.
"Andrew Cuomo is staying above the fiscal fray, and the longer he can
do that, the more it benefits him," said Greenberg. "Right now,
voters are not clamoring for him to make a decision."
Candidates usually announce early because they need to gain name
recognition and raise money for the state's notoriously expensive
races. But Greenberg says, in Cuomo's case, he does not need either
of those things right now. His name is well known, and in the last
reported campaign filing, he had raised twice as much cash as
Paterson.
Cuomo seems to realize that expressing political ambitions too early
would not be helpful, if he indeed decides to run for governor.
"The longer I can stay away from the politics, the better, as far as
I'm concerned." said Cuomo.
Cuomo could conceivably wait until after the state budget, which is
due in April, is decided. Party conventions are not likely to be held
until late May or early June.
In the meantime Paterson's political challenge, says Greenberg, is to
press Cuomo to weigh in on the fiscal crisis.
And, from Paterson's point of view, the longer Cuomo waits, the
greater the present governor's chances are of regaining some momentum
and becoming more than just a long shot in the 2010 race.