Vice President JD Vance heads to central New York Monday morning to headline a rally in Rome meant to boost Republican congressional candidates Anthony Constantino and Kailee Buller.
Vance is coming to the Griffiss Business and Technology Park in Rome to help both Constantino, who is running for the 21st Congressional District seat, and Kailee Buller., who is running against Democrat John Mannion in the 22nd District. But it’s likely the contest that features Constantino and his Democratic opponent Blake Gendebien is what spurred the vice president to come to Rome.
Recent polling, including one from Siena College, shows the potential for a close race in the 21st, even though Republicans have about an 80,000-voter registration advantage over Democrats.
Utica University political science professor Luke Perry said that even though some polls indicated it could be a close race, the strong GOP registration gave Constantino a leg up in this contest.
Perry said he expected Republicans to hold the seat and that, with no incumbent running, incumbency advantage was not in play. Beyond that, “registered partisan advantage is huge in the Republicans’ favor,” he said.
Longtime incumbent Elise Stefanik is not running for reelection. Perry said one issue that could hurt Republicans is that several of them may not be enthusiastic about voting in these midterm elections, even if they don’t want to back Democratic candidates.
“But they might, in larger numbers than usual, stay home, and I think that enthusiasm gap is something that Democrats are excited about, Republicans are concerned about, and also helps explain why somebody like the Vice President is coming in at the last minute,” Perry said.
The vice president comes to central New York on Monday, just a couple of days after Blake Gendebien held a rally in a different part of Rome.
Indivisible Mohawk Valley, which is part of a nationwide progressive movement that opposes the Trump administration’s actions, plans to hold a protest against Vance’s visit in Rome on Monday morning.
