How economists (and TikTok) know if a recession is coming

By Kenny Malone,

Keith Romer, Marianne McCune, James Sneed

Published May 22, 2025 at 9:13 AM EDT

Lately we've noticed that something we think about all the time here at Planet Money is having a viral moment: recession indicators!

From the more practical (like sales for lipstick going up and men's underwear going down) to the absurd and nonsensical (like babysitter buns coming back into style?) — people are posting to social media every little sign they see that a recession is coming. And we LOVE it. Because between the trade war and the tariffs and the stock market, there has been a lot of economic uncertainty over the last few months and we want to talk about it, too.

Today on the show — we dig into the slightly wonkier indicators that economists look at when they're trying to answer the question behind the viral internet trend: Is a recession coming?

This episode of Planet Money was produced by James Sneed. It was edited by Marianne McCune, fact-checked by Sarah McClure, and engineered by Cena Loffredo. Alex Goldmark is our executive producer.

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Music: SourceAudio - "The Shirt Still Fits," "Chameleon Panther Style," and "Nighthawk."

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Kenny Malone

Kenny Malone is a correspondent for NPR's Planet Money podcast. Before that, he was a reporter for WNYC's Only Human podcast. Before that, he was a reporter for Miami's WLRN. And before that, he was a reporter for his friend T.C.'s homemade newspaper, Neighborhood News.

Keith Romer

Keith Romer has been a contributing reporter for Planet Money since 2015. He has reported stories on risk-pooling among poker players, whether it's legal to write a spin-off of the children's book Goodnight Moon and the time one man cornered the American market in onions. Sometimes on the show, he sings.

See stories by Keith Romer

Marianne McCune

Marianne McCune is a reporter and producer for Embedded: Buffalo Extreme who has more than two decades of experience making award-winning audio stories. She has produced narrative podcast series for New York Magazine (Cover Story), helped start, produce and edit long-form narrative shows for NPR and public radio affiliates (Rough Translation; United States of Anxiety, Season Four), reported locally and internationally (NPR News, NPR's Planet Money and WNYC News) and produced groundbreaking narrative audio tours (SF MOMA, Detour). She is also the founder of Radio Rookies, a narrative youth radio series, that is still thriving at WNYC.

James Sneed

James Sneed began his career at NPR as Planet Money's Winter 2020 intern. Previous to that, Sneed worked at KBOO Community Radio and attended the Transom Story Workshop. His other professional experience includes Open Signal Media Center, KSMoCA and MASS MoCA. Currently, Sneed is an associate producer with Planet Money where he has produced stories about a comic book character from the public domain, the business of Black joy and the Christmas tree market — as well as reported on the racial wealth gap, the NCAA at the Supreme Court and why the New York Mets don't always Mets everything up... necessarily.