Tuesday across America, voters chose Democrats in each of the statewide elections and referenda. Combined with local wins for Democrats in New York City and other major cities electing mayors, it was what political scientist Grant Reeher called “a national phenomenon.”
Reeher, who teaches at Syracuse University and hosts The Campbell Conversations on WRVO, said he was stunned to see that the national trend towards Democratic candidates reached all the way down to local races in central and northern New York.
Onondaga County’s Legislature will be run by Democrats for the first time in 50 years after the party won at least 10 seats in the 17-seat body. Oswego County’s minuscule Democratic caucus in its county legislature swelled from just two members to seven after the party retained both seats and flipped five more – six short of a majority but a surprisingly strong showing nonetheless. Democrats won three of four State Supreme Court seats, kept a state Assembly seat in the North Country and pulled off a few surprises in some town races.
Reeher puts the blue wave down to “an asymmetry in the excitement level and energy level” of members of the two major parties. Democrats have been marching in the streets and massing for nationwide protests since the beginning of Donald Trump’s second term this year.
That energy carried over to Election Day.
While President Trump claimed Republicans lost because he wasn’t on the ballot, Reeher is one of many analysts to believe that the losses can be attributed to Trump and to the shutdown of the federal government by the Republican-led Congress.
“I didn’t see it coming,” said Reeher. “This is a real tectonic shift and that would be the thing, if I were a Democratic strategist, that I would be most excited about.”
What’s next for each party? Reeher thinks Democrats have to figure out how to capitalize on the energy in the party, given that winning candidates yesterday spanned the full range from progressives like New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani to centrists like Virginia Governor-elect Abigail Spanberger. He expects a debate within the party to try to settle on the core message and candidates for next year’s Congressional elections.
As for Republicans, Reeher thinks they will do some soul searching.
“I think one of the big things that’s going to come out of this result is the question of whether more Republicans now start to rethink the complete allegiance to Donald Trump,” he said.
As for the Onondaga County Legislature, Reeher expects the Democrats to give greater voice to their long-standing concerns and perhaps slow down some of County Executive Ryan McMahon’s major initiatives, such as the Micron project.
“That’ll be interesting to see,” Reeher said.